Oron Maher

Retail Commercial Condominium For Sale

2009-10-18T13:49:00.000-07:00

Exclusive Listing Agent: Oron Maher

Asking Price: $1,800,000

Tremendous opportunity to purchase a pristine retial commercial condo, located on the ground floor of luxury residential bldg, on the heavy- traffic 2nd St corridor, across the street from the Courtyard Marriot and surrounded by heavy office usage, condo towers, and many restaurants. Current usage as as a spa/event center. The space is mostly open with one private office, 7 treatment rooms, 2 bathrooms (ADA), 2 showers/locker facilities. Space is clean and in pristine condition.The space is currently tenant occupied by a spa, but owner says that space can be delivered vacant at close of escrow, creating a unique purchase opportunity for an owner user. Tenants' lease expires May 31, 2012 with 5 year option to renew and base rent of $11,091.71 NNN+ annual CPI increases. Monthly assesments for this condo were $1,311.13 in 2008.Space is in pristine condition with high-ceilings, wood floors and many high-end finishes.
2nd between Folsom and Mission Streets on high-traffic retail/office/residential/hospitality corridor.

For more information: 415-834-3545

SOMA Concrete and Timber Office Building

2009-10-18T13:46:00.000-07:00

Exclusive Listing Agent: Oron Maher

Asking Price: $4,175,000.

This 1927-built concrete and timber building was formerly the William Randolph Hearst Priting Plant, which totals approximately 13,808 sf on three floors, includin lower level. The ground floor is tenant-occupied on a lease which expires March 31, 2013. The base rent for the year 2009 is $9,012/month IG ($1.30/ft), which escalates yearly through year five. Tenant has the option to extend the lease by 5 years at maturity. This floor has very high-cielings.The third floor will be delivered vacant, BUT seller may lease-back. The office floors are elegant and have many high-end features including: concrete/hardwood floors and timber throughout (sand-blasted), large conference room, HVAC (third floor only), operable windows, custom hand-blown bathroom fixtures. All workstations are wired for phone and internet with multiple ports.The entire building is monitored by Sonitorl alarm and is hardwired with a smoke detector system, fully-wired CAT-5 wiring with phone and voicemail system throughout. The building has stairway access to all floors from Howard St and freight elevators to all floors from Moss St. The is also a loading dock with access from Moss St.
Excellent SOMA location on Howard St (between 6th and 7th) on the corner of Moss Street.

For more information: 415-834-3545

Pacific Heights Mixed-Use Buidling

2009-10-18T13:42:00.000-07:00

Exclusive Listing Agent: Oron Maher

Asking Price: $2,300,000

Three unit building located on the corner of Sacramento and Scott. This building has one charming, large, residential unit above, with an approx. 700 sq ft. private patio, delivered VACANT. Potential possibility of developing additional residential sq ft. Ground floor has two commercial units,both open floor-plan office space, tenant occupied. Owner would consider negotiating a buy-out with commercial tenant in order to deliver a full or partially vacant building.Past drawings exist for development of approx. 1,000 sq ft. of residential space, giving an owner a residential dwelling unit in excess of 2,000 sq ft in A+ location. Ground floor tenant occupies both spaces and pays $4,050, with 5 year option to renew. Owner would consider negotiating a buy-out with commercial tenant.
Corner of Scott and Sacramento Street.

For more information: 415-834-3545

Days Inn Motel- Stockton, California

2009-10-18T13:35:00.000-07:00

Exclusive Listing Agent: Oron Maher

Asking Price: $3,730,000.

The Days Inn-Stockton is a 70 room hotel located a half-block from the 5 Freeway exit. The property also has two ground floor commercial spaces, one of which is occupied by Quiznos. About 1/2 of the hotel rooms have been remodeled in the past year. The hotel sits on a large lot with ample parking, swimming pool area, and grand lobby enterance.

For more information: 415-834-3545

131 Frankin Street, San Francisco-SOLD $3,000,000 after only 2 Weeks on Market

2009-06-21T21:34:00.000-07:00

Seller Can Carry Up To 70% With Flexible Terms For Approved Buyer. Charming brick and timber building on 4 levels. Ground floor reception area, and open floor plan. 2nd level has 3 private offices, kitchen/break room, and open area used for office purposes. 3rd level has 2 private offices, small kitchen and large executive meeting room. Lower has server room, storage space and is suitable for office usage. Cubicles throughout. Building is seismically upgraded, ADA compliant and spriklered.

Listing Agent:

Oron Maher, Pacific Union Commercial Brokerage

415-378-5464

June Real Estate Meetup with Bay Area Council

2009-06-21T21:30:00.000-07:00

Event Details: Please join us for an exciting and educational evening at the Infinity Towers. The night will feature three keynote speakers, networking, and appetizers. Each speaker will give a brief presentation of timely issues as they pertain to their respective industries. The line-up will include:

· Jeff Heller-Jeffrey D. Heller, FAIA, an architect member of the Board since November 2002, practicing architect for 37 years, and is the founder and president of Heller Manus Architects in San Francisco. He currently serves as president of the AIA San Francisco. He also serves as an advisor and consultant to several San Francisco City planning and design projects including the San Francisco City Planning Department for Urban Design Guidelines. Heller earned his bachelor’s and master’s degrees from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

· Ray Carlisle, President Carlisle Companies, has over 35 years of experience in residential and commercial real estate valuation, management and development; with a primary focus on new and rehabilitation mixed-use and income rental and homeownership projects and strip commercial retail/office and urban area shopping centers. Ray is the chair of the Bridge Housing Projects Committee-the largest non-profit real estate developer in CA.

· Scott Zengel-Scott is Vice President of the Bay Area Family of Funds and oversees the management of $200 million in double bottom line private equity funds. The Family of Funds portfolio currently includes the Bay Area Smart Growth Fund I and II and the Bay Area Equity Fund. In addition to his fund responsibilities, Scott manages execution of the second bottom line programs throughout the Bay Area. The programs currently focus on education, double bottom line business development, and community capacity building.

Time and Location: Thursday June 11, 2009 from 6-8:00 P.M at The Infinity Towers, Community Room- 160 Folsom Street.

Cost: Free, but please RSVP in advance.

Additional Info: In addition to listening to great speakers, this will be a great opportunity to network with industry professionals, investors, developers and educators- bring your business cards. Appetizers will be served.

Contact: Oron Maher, Pacific Union Commercial Brokerage (415) 378-5464.

Civic Center Office Building for Lease and Sale

2009-04-23T12:25:00.000-07:00

Property Description:

Built in 1917, this vacant commercial building has enterances on both Market and Fell streets (aka 33 Fell St). Totaling approx. 17,000 sq ft. on two floors, the building is proximate to City Hall and many other government agencies. Building is in good condition and is offered on an "as-is" basis. The ground floor is primarily open, with several large rooms. The second floor has private offices and large rooms.Taxes and operating expenses are estimated to be 40 cents/sf/mo. Term: short or long term. Floors may be leased independently.
Location Description:Prime Civic Center location- At the covergence of Market, Fell and Polk streets.

Rental Rate: $1.50/SF/Month
Zoning Description: C-3-G Downtown, General
Lot Size: 8,520 SF
• Building can also be sold for $5,000,000.
• Located in Enterprise Zone
• 320 ft. height limit creates tremendous opportunity
• reinforced concrete construction
• ADA compliant
•short or long term lease.

For more information please call Oron Maher (415) 378-5464

Geary Corridor 2 Unit Commerical Building For Sale- $2,800,000

2009-02-13T21:16:00.000-08:00

Two Unit Commercial Building: Ground floor of approx. 3000 sq ft includes basement and mezzanine which will be vacant first quarter 2009 (also available for lease@ $7500/mo, currently gift store). Upper floor is owner occupied dental practice. Owner would like to lease-back upper level but will consider all offers. High foot and vehicle traffic commercial building along Geary corridor.

Call Oron Maher 415-378-5464 for more information.

January 2009 Meetup Group Featured Attorney Dee Ware of Cooper White and Cooper

2009-02-13T21:09:00.000-08:00

For those have you who have not yet made it to our Real Estate Investment Meetup Group, please consider attending one of our 2009 meetings. Our January speaker was attorney Dee Ware.
Dee A. Ware is a partner at Cooper, White and Cooper, LLP, specializing in complex construction, real estate and commercial litigation. She is a founding member and co-chairperson of the firm's Green Practice Group. Ms. Ware was one of the first attorneys in the country to be certified as a Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design Accredited Professional (LEED AP) by the U.S. Green Building Council. She assists clients in all phases of the green building process, including rating system selection, navigation of the certification process and rapidly emerging government regulations, implementation of risk management strategies, and advocacy of client interests in the event that a dispute arises concerning design, construction, certification, operation or purchase and sale of a green project. Since 1991, Ms. Ware has represented some of California’s largest lenders, developers, design professionals and general contractors in all facets of residential and commercial construction litigation, including claims of defective construction, mechanic’s liens and contract disputes. In addition, she has counseled numerous property owners, real estate professionals and investment companies in connection with real estate disputes concerning development, zoning, financing, sale and acquisition and commercial leasing.
Ms. Ware graduated cum laude from Syracuse University in 1988, earning bachelor’s degrees in political science and public relations, and holds a juris doctor degree from the University of California, Hastings College of the Law. She is a member of the State Bar of California and has previously been appointed to its Committee on the Administration of Justice. She has also served on the California Association of Realtors’ Tort Advisory Committee, as a Judge Pro Tem for the Alameda County Superior Courts, and on steering committees and advisory boards for green building and sustainable business conferences and events.
Ms. Ware has received an AV® Peer Review Rating from LexisNexis Martindale-Hubbell, which is the highest rating awarded for legal ability and ethical standards.

For more information about our monthly meetings in San Francisco, please contact Oron Maher (415) 378-5464

Goldman Report

2008-11-11T12:37:00.000-08:00

These are truly historic times. Last week, Barack Obama was elected as America’s first African-American president. I don’t envy his new job. He faces as great a challenge as FDR did in the 30’s. All of America, no matter whether you voted for him or not, is now dependent on what he does as he assumes the presidency on January 20th. I know all of us wish him well as he leads us out of our current economic crisis.

It is too early to tell what it will mean for the housing market. However, the declines on Wall Street and the focus on the election have slowed most segments of the local housing market over the last couple of weeks. Financial uncertainty, the fear created by a protracted recession and declining home values, has made buyers reluctant to move forward.

Believe it or not, there are bright spots. Although housing prices have declined, so too have inventories. In addition, the number of units closed over the last several months has increased over last year during the same period. These gains, however, have been in the lower price ranges. With the decline in median price first hitting in these same ranges beginning at the end of 2006, we are now seeing declines in areas that have been immune previously i.e. San Francisco.

The numbers from the month of October clearly demonstrate these trends. Where we have seen the most significant price declines year over year (the lower price ranges), we have also seen both the largest reduction in inventories and the greatest gains in homes sold year over year. Where there were few, if any, multiple offers in the lower price ranges last year, they currently represent the majority of multiple offers.

Both Contra Costa (-44%) and Solano (-37%) counties, which have some of lowest median prices, saw the greatest declines in price. They also had the largest increase in unit sales over last October---Solano (+242%) and Contra Costa (+185%). On the other end, the counties with the highest median sales prices have had the smallest declines in price---San Francisco (-10%), Marin (-25%) and San Mateo (-25%), but also had either a decline in units sold or much smaller increases in units sold over last October---San Francisco (-20%), Marin (+12%) and San Mateo (+17%). The rest of the counties were as follows (the first number is decline in price and the second is increase in units sold): Alameda (-35/+75%), Santa Clara (-33%/+35%), Napa (-32%/+58%) and Sonoma (-32%/+122%).

All but one county (San Francisco) declined in months supply of inventory over last year. The greatest percentage declines in supply occurred in those counties with the biggest declines in median price. The most dramatic decline was in Solano County, which has the lowest median price in the Bay Area. It went from a 22.4 months supply last year to a 5.4 months supply this year. The rest of the counties are as follows (the first number is October 2008 months supply of inventory and the second is October 2007): Sonoma (4.4/12.7), Contra Costa (4.7/15.1), Alameda (4.9/10.1), San Francisco (5.2/3.5), San Mateo (5.3/6.0), Solano (5.4/22.4), Marin (6.0/6.7), Santa Clara (6.4/9.0) and Napa (8.5/15.7).

The number of days on market has declined in counties with the lowest median prices, while they increased in the counties with the higher priced homes. The changes in percent in the number of days on the market are as follows: Napa (-27%), Solano (-20%), Sonoma (-20%), Contra Costa (-16%), Alameda (+15%), Marin (+17%), Santa Clara (+29%), San Mateo (+32%) and San Francisco (+44%).

The higher price counties remained healthy through most of last year while the lower priced counties took the brunt of the sub-prime fiasco. This year the higher price counties have not been immune. The worsening economy has now affected all income levels. What the lower end market experienced in the end of 2006 and all of 2007, the higher priced markets are experiencing now. We are beginning to see prices stabilize in some of our lower end markets. The recovery always starts at the bottom. The pace of the recovery will depend on many factors---most notably is how protracted a recession we will face. To be sure, the man who we elected President last Tuesday will have a profound effect on the housing market.

Just Listed- Edward II Inn and Suites-Hotel for Sale

2008-10-11T10:05:00.000-07:00

Property Description:Own a historic corner of San Francisco, in the tourist heavy Marina District. The 3 story boutique hotel was originally constructed in 1914 to accommodate visitors to the Panama Pacific International Exposition of 1915. Licenced for 32 tourist units, the inn currently operates 29 rooms in the main building (fee simple), all with beautiful Edwardian detail; and 2 large suites on the northeast corner of Lombard (leasehold interest), which allows for prime signage on both northwest and southeast sides of the street. Ground floor has a charming corner lobby with high ceilings, licenced Bloomers Pub with bath , guest breakfast area, kitchen, 2 offices, 3 suites with jacuzzi baths. Second and third floor have 26 additional rooms, double glazed windows, stained glass. Five off-sight leased parking spaces may be delivered.This hotel has been operated as a bed and breakfast. It enjoys a prime corner location and 50' frontage on Lombard Street and a depth (on Scott Street) of 68.75 feet. Walk to restaurants and shops on Lombard and Chestnut streets. One of the closest hotels to the Golden Gate Bridge. Property history shows strong occupancy and great future room revenue potential.
Location Description:The subject site is located on the southwest corner of the intersection of Lombard and Scott Streets in the City of County of San Francisco, California. Its dual civic address is known as 3151-55 Scott Street and 2401-05 Lombard Street. The subject is identified as San Francisco County Assessor' s Parcel Number 937-001.The subject property is located in a neighborhood identified as the Marina District. The neighborhood may be more specifically identified as that area east of the Presidio, bordered to the north by the San Francisco Bay, to the west by Van Ness Avenue, and to the south by Union Street. The neighborhood can be generally characterized as one of the better quality residential areas in the city of San Francisco. Transportation through the neighborhood is considered good. Two main arteries run east/west through the neighborhood including Lombard Street and Marina Boulevard. Both these streets intersect with U.S. Highway 101 to the west, which provides access to the Golden Gate Bridge and north.

Asking Price: $6,000,000.

For more information please call: Oron Maher (415) 378-5464

October 22 Meeting will feature Bill Whalen of Wachovia

2008-10-11T09:58:00.000-07:00

Meeting Location: Fort Mason, Room C230
Time: 6:30 - 8:30pm
Please join us for our next real estate meetup. While we are still in the process of confirming a second speaker- we are very pleased to have Bill Whalen address our group on October 22nd. Mr. Whalen, who is a Managing Director at Wachovia, will give us an inside analysis on real estate capital markets and an economic forecast for the coming year. Come learn from the industries best, and network with other like-minded real estate minds.
Mr. Whalen is a Managing Director and Regional Executive in the San Francisco office of Wachovia's Real Estate Division. Mr. Whalen manages Wachovia's real estate platform for the Northwest Region. Mr. Whalen is responsible for managing a team of real estate bankers who provide a full suite of capital solutions to institutional and middle market real estate investors. Mr. Whalen has closed over 6.0 billion in commercial real estate transactions since opening the San Francisco office for Wachovia Securities (First Union) in 1998.
Mr. Whalen has twenty years of corporate banking and commercial real estate finance experience and has worked in Wachovia's Real Estate platform for the past ten years. Prior to joining Wachovia, Mr. Whalen was a Vice President and Senior Underwriter at Wells Fargo Real Estate Capital Markets in San Francisco. At Wells Fargo he was responsible for underwriting and structuring commercial real estate mortgages intended for securitization. Prior to Wells Fargo, Mr. Whalen was Vice President at First Interstate Bank of California where he served in various capacities in its Real Estate Division. Mr. Whalen graduated with a B.A. in Economics and Political Science from the University of New Mexico.

For more information please call: Oron Maher (415) 378-5464.

Oron Maher Represents Unique Marina District Bed & Breakfast Inn

2008-10-05T08:29:00.000-07:00

San Francisco, CA – October 7, 2008 – Romantics, celebrities, historians and San Francisco visitors alike love the European-style Edward II Inn and Suites. For nearly 100 years, this one-of-a-kind Marina District bed and breakfast inn and pub has successfully paired old world charm with 21st century amenities, earning the title as one of the three Best Romantic Hotels in San Francisco by City Search. The ideally located property at 3155 Scott Street (@ Lombard) is now on the market, represented by listing agent Oron Maher of Pacific Union GMAC Real Estate. Price is available upon request.

“This inn is a tremendous and hard to obtain piece of San Francisco history as well as a successful bed and breakfast and English pub which are offered for sale at a time when San Francisco tourism and occupancy rates are at an all time high,” said Maher, who works from Pacific Union’s Presidio headquarters. “It also contains star appeal. The movie Beaches with Bette Midler was partially filmed in the hotel.”

On a historic note, the exquisite three-story inn was originally constructed in 1914 to accommodate visitors of the Panama Pacific International Exposition in 1915 which was held at what is now the Marina Green. With 11,754 square feet, the Edward II Inn and Suites features 31 rooms, four suites, Bloomers Pub and charm galore. Ideally situated at the corner of Scott and Lombard streets, the Edward II is all about location. It is just minutes from many popular Marina District shops and restaurants, the Presidio and Fort Mason, and attractions like Fisherman’s Wharf and Ghirardelli Square.

Edward II Inn and Suites voted among top three Most Romantic Hotels in San Francisco

For more information about the hotel, or to request a showing, contact Oron Maher at 415.378-5464, realtylaw@gmail.com.

Pacific Sales Comes to San Francisco

2008-09-18T07:40:00.000-07:00

Pacific Sales Comes to San Francisco
Kitchen and Bath Retailer Expands into Northern CA
Southern California-based Pacific Sales Kitchen, Bath & Electronics signed a 10-year lease for the entire building at 955-975 Bryant St. in San Francisco. The tenant will take the former Copenhagen Furniture space in January next year. The 30,000-square foot retail building was built in 1928 in the Showplace Square submarket. It received renovations in 2000. The lease is part of Pacific Sales' expansion into Northern California.

San Francisco Real Estate Meetup

2008-09-15T22:26:00.001-07:00

Please join us for our next meetup group on Wednesday, September 24, 2008 at 6:30 pm at Pacific Unions office. To RSVP for this event, please call Oron Maher (415) 378-5464 or email: realtylaw@gmail.com. Our speaker is Jeremey Paul. Here is a little more information about Jeremy:
Jeremy Paul and his associates at Quickdraw Permit Consulting have been getting improbable projects approved in San Francisco for more than 19 years. The office specializes in difficult smaller projects; including change of use and occupancy, residential demolitions and alterations, legalization of odd units and strange uses in unlikely locations, unit mergers, entertainment permitting, new construction, and staring down unreasonable and capricious plan checkers. Quickdraw is noted for a uniquely creative and persistent approach to neighborhood conflict resolution and permitting of new and environmentally sensitive architecture. They are responsible for the first horizontal axis windpower generator installed in a residential neighborhood in any city in the country.Mr. Paul is a nearly weekly feature at the San Francisco Board of Appeals and Planning Commission where he is noted for well crafted powerpoint presentations laden with enough humor to awaken sleeping commissioners. San Franciscan's with far too much time on their hands often approach him in restaurants to ask if he's that guy they see all the time on the City Hall cable TV channel. Jeremy uniformly denies knowing what they're talking about . . . Mr. Paul will speak on the current atmosphere towards Real Estate development and alteration in San Francisco and hopes you will come with questions both specific and general about our Building and Planning codes.

The Goldman Report- Weekly Bay Area Marketing Report

2008-05-12T06:38:00.000-07:00

The Bay Area forecast is loaded with microclimates. Meaning that as usual San Francisco is still bright and sunny, Marin, Alameda, and Contra Costa are cloudy with breaking sunshine, while Sonoma and Napa are still rather cloudy. Even within each county we find areas that continue with rain storms mixed with bright sun. You can even find a rainbow or two.

The overriding theme is plenty of buyers circling, with many still trying to figure out the long term weather pattern. The majority of homes open for the first time are attracting ample crowds of between 10-40 potential home owners. The best and most attractive listings are drawing numbers in the high double to triple digits, like the Piedmont 3 bedr./3 ba. home that was visited by 140 guests and the SF Noe Valley listing priced at $2.095 mil. that garnered over 200 buyers. Buyer traffic drops off significantly after the first open home as buyers are constantly looking for the newest eye-catching listing. Usually the only exception is when a property has a noteworthy price reduction.

Those that are jumping in are doing so with gusto. Nearly 30% of our transactions during this period were involved in multiple offers (29% to be exact). The majority of these transactions are drawing between 2-4 offers and selling at asking or 2-6% over list. There are exceptions such as the Noe Valley listing in SF priced at a bit under $ 1 mil that did go over by 10%. The upper end of the market is still healthy in San Francisco and appears to be coming back in Marin. As evidenced by the multiple offer on a $4 mil. home in Tiburon and another Marin listing at $3.9 mil. that also went into escrow. Contra Costa is also seeing resurgence in their upper end where a $2.075 mil. home in San Ramon sold. The Oakland/Berkeley area is seeing a different pattern where listings between $1 – 1.5 mil are selling, but those over that level are being more challenged. Napa and Sonoma are experiencing the bulk of their activity in the lowest and highest ends of their market. As you can see, the weather is quite variable.

The majority of buyers are still lacking a sense of urgency. However, buyers do know value and when they see it; do not hesitate to make their move. Volume of sales was well off last year comparing first quarter 2007 to first quarter 2008. The pattern changed in April, where in a number of counties open sales were actually up over 2008. This is a positive trend if it holds for May and June.

We will continue to see volatility in our market, just as we have seen in the stock market. Inventories continue to shrink and new home building has pretty much come to a standstill in the Bay Area. At the same time buyer demand is increasing. At some point the pressure will have to release itself. Although this time it should come in a measured release rather than with hurricane force as it did in 1999/2000 and again in 2004/2005.

I am attaching two articles that acknowledge that the worst is behind us and that the repair has begun. One is by a hedge fund manager, Cyril Moulle-Berteaux and the other by George Soros the billionaire investor. These articles are significant because they are the first national articles that are beginning to look at recovery rather than continuing to dwell on the rubble in the rear view mirror. We will still experience the on-going fall out from the sub-prime debacle, but like after shocks from an earthquake they do diminish over time.

Client Testimonial....

2008-03-06T08:50:00.001-08:00

I just had to post this client testimonial......
Oron: Now that we're truly finished with my sale, I wanted to give you a final thanks for the outstanding job you did. Frankly, it's astonishing that someone your age is able to conduct business in such a seasoned, mature manner. (And, you showed advanced-level patience with me.) In any case, you brought the caliber of professionalism and polish I was hoping that choosing you would bring to the transaction. I think you struck the perfect balance between getting me a good deal and working with my somewhat challenging time line. I am especially grateful for the extra help you provided around my move-out. It would have been a major ordeal without your assistance.I hope you consider the sale a success and that it earns you further business at Gramercy Towers. You did a great job and should be proud of yourself. I would be happy to give you the highest recommendation or most positive reference if ever needed. I'll keep you posted as things progress for me in NY, and please keep me updated on your journey to becoming a lawyer.Best of luck,Christopher

The Goldman Report- Weekly Bay Area Real Estate Survey

2008-02-11T08:02:00.000-08:00

Mirror, mirror on the wall who can tell us where we fall? Will the market get off the dime or will it linger until summer time?

Here is what we know. Pending sales in December 2007 were off 29% from December 2006. Closed sales in January 2008 were off 39.6% from January 2007 and pending sales were off 24%. What this tells us is that it is taking longer to close transactions and that we are having more transactions falling out of escrow. On the positive side, months supply of inventory has decreased in every county from December 2007 numbers. However, absolute inventories are up in every marketplace from January of 2007, except Marin county.

San Francisco is still the healthiest of markets with only 3.9 months supply of inventory. Also on the bright side is Solano and Contra Costa counties which had been hit the hardest of all Bay Area counties due to the amount of new home growth over the last several years and the number of sub-prime loans taken to finance them. Solano was off only 9.4% and Contra Costa county was off 16% in pending sales versus last January. Could this mean we are getting close to the bottom of this cycle? If this trend continues it would be safe to say we are flattening out.

As I stated in my last report, the housing market is seeing the same kind of volatility as the equity markets. In the last reporting period sales activity had waned. In this report period, sales activity picked up in almost every market. Multiple offer activity also picked up with 20% of our sales being involved in multiple offer transactions. One interesting note is that an REO (foreclosure) property in Napa listed at $397,750 received 13 offers. Buyers today are seeking great value and when the see it, they leap. We are not out of the woods, but at least there is a glimmer of light.

Buyers are still out in good numbers even on the Super Bowl weekend. A SF Lone Mountain 3bedr/ 3ba listing priced at $1.649mil. had 50 groups on Sat. and 40 groups on Sunday and a SF Potrero Hill 3 bedr. /1.5ba home listed at $1.149mil had 60 visitors. Overall open house traffic averaged between 10-20 groups. Buyers remain cautious and are taking their time before writing offers.

Globally most economic news is not encouraging. The stock market took another downward swoop this past week on news of unemployment figures and continuing negative news in the financial sectors. With all the pessimistic chatter, it is difficult to hear or find signs that would point to a change in direction. Last week I shared the good news about the NY Giants winning the Super Bowl. The market just hasn’t caught up with the win---they will.

However on another front there is some heartening news. For the first time in 13 years U.S. company senior executives bought more shares than they sold as reported last week in the Financial Times. Insider purchases by these executives and directors totaled $663 million while sales tallied at $475 million. In the past, periods of net buying by executives and directors have been a signal that the market will rise sharply in the ensuing 12 months.

According to Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management, “insider buying and selling figures have historically been a good indicator of how the market will perform in the future”.

The last time this occurred was in January 1995. During that year the S&P rallied 34.1%. The last year of the housing down cycle in the 90’s was 1995. The most recent up cycle began in 1996 and continued through 2005 with a short correction in 2001. This year could be the most opportunistic market for buyers in the past 12 years. Just like predicting a recession, by the time it is proclaimed, the economy is already heading in another direction.

Mirror, mirror on the wall will this year be the fairest of them all?

Elegant Balcony Unit on Top of Nob Hill. Asking Price: $675,000

2008-01-13T22:01:00.000-08:00

The Gramercy Towers is a prestigous full-service building located on top of coveted Nob Hill. This elegant balcony unit has been upgraded with a contemporary flair. Enjoy eastern views of the bay, Huntington Park and Grace Cathedral. HOA dues include 24 hour doorperson, pool, exercise gym, parking, storage and utilities. Upscale restaurant/bar located downstairs. Walk to local favorites such as Nob Hill Cafe and Top of the Mark. Convenient to Downtown and Financial District.

This unit is a 1 bedroom, 1 bath approx. 756 square feet.

For more information please contact: Oron Maher 415-345-3173

New Listing- Inner Richmond Duplex with Cottage: $949,000

2008-01-13T22:00:00.000-08:00

Amazing value on this Inner Richmond 2 unit building. Each unit is 2 bedrooms/1.5 bath. The property also contains a detached, studio cottage in the back. Units are in good shape and show well. Upper is rented for $1,800 (lease expires Jan. 08) and lower is $1,500 (month-to-month). 3R report shows some permiting history for back cottage. New Safeway one block away is slated to open in the coming months. One block to GG Park and De Young Museum.

The Goldman Report- Weekly Bay Area Real Estate Market Report

2008-01-13T21:56:00.000-08:00

Happy New Year!!! Welcome to 2008---Recession---No Recession---Recession---No recession. Not a day goes by (or for that matter an evening) without the same mantra from the media. The year begins with the same economic uncertainties as it ended with.

If we look closer there still is much to be happy about. Unemployment which is up, is still reasonable (95% of America is working); job growth is still on the plus side, although anemic; food and fuel prices are out of sight, although inflation is still manageable; and as far as the Fed is concerned, rates will come down. Most important for real estate here is that there is still demand. The only issue is the demand is reluctant to exercise itself. Why do you blame buyers, all they hear is wait, the prices will drop.

Traffic through open houses tells the story. Usually January tends to be slower. Not the case this year, particularly in those markets that were the strongest in 2007. In San Francisco the traffic at last Sunday’s opens was brisk. The open houses averaged 18-35 groups with some notable exceptions. A Cole Valley duplex listed at $1.349 mil. had 300 groups through and a Pacific Hts. triplex listed at $2.595 had over 100 visitors. It wasn’t just SF. In the East Bay, a Crocker Highlands listing in Oakland, experienced 300 buyers. It was listed a bit over $1.6 mil. . We are still seeing good numbers of buyers in all areas. What this early activity indicates is that there is still plenty of pent up demand.

This year is reflecting the similar trends as last. The upper end of the market is the most prolific. This year started off with a $6.45 mil sale in Ross and a $5.3 mil sale in St. Helena. There would be more, if the inventory was there on well-priced unique properties. The appetite for these upper end listing is certainly evident.

All markets depend on momentum. In summarizing last year it was a year of momentum----both halves of it---up and down. The Bay Area market was a tale two markets-----the high average sales price counties---SF, Marin, San Mateo and parts of Santa Clara were going extremely well through mid July. The counties with the lower average sales prices---Solano, Napa, Sonoma, Alameda and Contra Costa---struggled from the beginning of the year. There were exceptions in Alameda and Contra Costa counties---Berkeley, the north part of Oakland, Piedmont, Albany and the Lamorinda (Lafayette, Moraga and Orinda) areas looked more like SF and Marin.

Once the sub-prime debacle hit, the momentum in the first half of the year began slowing to a point that by December all of the Bay Area markets were off from last year on a month over month basis. This is best demonstrated by comparing the year over year (06 vs. 07) with 4th qtr. over 4th qtr. (06 vs. 07). This gives the clearest picture of how momentum can be affected by financial calamities. Each county will have two percentage numbers, the first being year over year and the second will reflect 4th quarter over 4th quarter. The comparisons are based on units for both single family residences and condos.

San Francisco -9.69% -19.11%
Marin -12.0% -29.0%
Sonoma -23.26% -39.04%
Napa -25.13% -42.02%
Solano -40.02% -48.43%
Alameda -27.53% -42.91%
Contra Costa -29.30% -42.89%

You can see the dramatic effect of momentum. Just to highlight how the briskness of upper end markets can have a positive effect on a market even if units are tending down we can look no further than SF and Marin counties. Although units were down about 10% in SF, the volume of sales was down only 4.23% and in Marin units were down 12%, however the total dollar volume was only down 1.22%----so much for broad brushing a market place.

Given those numbers above you would think sales price would be significantly impacted. Think again. Yes, in those markets with the highest variances from last year, median sales prices have been affected. The majority of our markets have not gone appreciably and in some they have actually gone up.

Here is a look at median sales prices. I will give both year over year and 4th qtr. over 4th qtr.

San Francisco +3.25% +4.3%
Marin +4.15% +4.4%
Sonoma -5.91% -13%
Napa +.84% +1%
Solano -8.13% -17.2%
Alameda +1.0% -3.36%
Contra Costa -1.0% -14.35%

Prices in SF and Marin counties have not only held, but have accelerated. This is a testament to the strong activity in the upper end. Even Alameda and Napa counties have held well. This again reflects the strength in the upper price ranges. Solano and Sonoma have been the hardest hit with prices dipping even further in the 4th qtr. Contra Costa did well for most of the year until the 4th qtr. What these three counties have in common is that there was tremendous amount new home building over the last several years. The swollen inventories due to new homes and foreclosures have led to these price declines.

Let’s take a look at inventories. Housing like any other commodity is influenced by supply and demand. We will look at months supply of inventory December 2006 vs. 2007. The first MSI will be 2006 and the second 2007 and then the variance.

San Francisco 2.3 4.1 +1.8
Marin 4.8 5.7 +.8
Sonoma 8.1 12.0 +3.9
Napa 14.6 14.7 +.1
Solano 9.5 15.9 +6.4
Alameda 4.7 10.9 +5.2
Contra Costa 7.7 13.7 +6.0

Every county is up from last year. What is obvious is that in the counties with the smallest increases in inventory supply, median prices have held or gone up. Alameda is the only exception and that could be due to the strength of prices in northern Alameda county where inventories are close to those in SF and Marin.

Looking at the current inventories only Marin and San Francisco would be considered balanced markets. A balanced market is one with 4-6 months inventory----far lower than the national average of 10.7 months. The rest of the Bay is in double digits which is a strong buyers market. What does this mean going forward? If inventories increase there will be further pressure on prices. My view is if we look at the trends in the fourth quarter we can gain some insight into the future of inventories.

Let’s view the months supply of inventory October through December by county.

San Francisco 3.2 3.6 4.1
Marin 5.5 5.8 5.7
Sonoma 12.3 11.6 12.0
Napa 15.9 14.9 14.7
Solano 18.4 15.5 15.9
Alameda 9.2 10.2 10.9
Contra Costa 14.0 13.6 13.7

If the fourth quarter is any indication of what the first part of 2008 will look like, it could signify that we are at the bottom of this cycle. Inventories have not moved up much and in some cases have moved down. If this trend continues we could be looking at a flattening out and then it is just a matter of time before the market returns to equilibrium. It will still take some time for those markets in double digit inventories to recover, but before you go down you have to stop going up.

For buyers it is a time of immense opportunity in some markets, certainly those that have inflated inventories. These opportunities are like windows they open and close. For the savvy buyer the opportunity is now. Interest rates are at the lowest they have been in several months and could drop a bit lower, but will then rise once again.

Buyers also need to be aware that not all markets are created equal. Even in this current market we are still seeing multiple offers. They may not be going well over asking, but nonetheless they are occurring. I have attached a column by Carol Lloyd that illustrates that point. All markets are not the same even within the same city. For buyers interested in the most desirable areas in the Bay Area they may find themselves competing with others for their dream home.

Sellers need to be aware that this is not a market to try and obtain your price. I think by now most sellers are conscious that today’s world is different from that of 2005. We are in new territory. This is a market that sellers should have a reason to sell. It is not a time to test the market. It is well beyond that. A seller must price accurately and prepare their home to stand out among the competition. In spite of the times there are still opportunities for sellers, particularly the move up seller. That seller that is moving up to a higher priced home. Even if they have to take less on the home they are selling the discount in absolute dollars on the home they would be buying would be larger (i.e. if the market is off 5% the discount on a $600,000 home would be $30,000---if the home they are buying is $1,000,000 that same 5% is worth $50,000—a plus to the move up seller of $20,000). This is not a new concept. Many move up sellers benefited from this during the early 80’s and 90’s. If sellers are thinking of selling this year it is better to come on earlier to avoid the rush of listings in the second quarter. It cuts down on your competition. If the past is any indicator, best to come on not later than April. The sooner the better.

If a listing has been on the market several months it is likely it will be difficult to sell in the current market. Buyers in today’s world are looking at new listings that are coming on and those listings that have had price reductions. The best advice I could give is either reduce the current list price to adjust for the market along with making any needed improvements or withdraw the listing and wait for a more opportune market.

Back to recession vs. no recession----who cares. Most recessions aren’t called for several months after they have actually happened. If in fact we are in or going into a recession, this one should be mild, at least for the Bay Area. The Bay Area is the strongest segment of the California economy much due to the diversity of its economic base----technology, bio-med, financial, media and export/import. The positive news on the dollar is that American goods globally are more affordable, including real estate. We will see more foreign investment both from Europe, Canada and Asia. There still is a great deal of wealth in the Bay Area. Plus it is no denying, there aren’t many better places in the world to live.

As someone once said “perception is everything”. We saw how quickly the market changed this summer once the consumer began losing confidence in the economy. Until the majority of consumers begin to regain confidence it may be slow sledding for the first quarter of the year. Momentum is a two street. Lest us not forget it is a Presidential election year. It is always interesting to observe how an economy perks to life as we get closer to election. Look forward to better times beginning in the second quarter or perhaps even sooner.

The Goldman Report- Weekly Bay Area Real Estate Market Report

2007-11-13T12:07:00.001-08:00

The Bay Area housing market had a lift in October. Guess you didn’t read that one. With few exceptions the number of pending and closed sales in Bay Area counties was up in October over September. In most counties sales prices were up or slightly down when compared to last October. Some were extraordinarily up due to the upper ends of the market doing quite well. The counties with the lowest median and average prices took the biggest decreases. Months supply of inventory dropped from Sept. to October in every county. The good news is that some buyers are just ignoring the headlines.

Robert Toll, Chief Executive one of the country’s largest luxury home builders finally said it best in the NY Times last week. He stated the housing market is horrible in most parts of the country—he fears it won’t get better until newspapers stop saying how bad it is. Mr. Toll said this because of the large number of cancellations of contracts in his developments not due to any reasons related to obtaining financing or buyers homes not selling. He goes on to say “that they (buyers) read one too many Times articles deciding now is not the time to buy.”

Can’t wait to read how the local papers will handle the news that closed sales are up from Sept. to October. These stories won’t be written for a few weeks. I am sure they will find a way to turn positive news into a negative.

Half of our offices had at least one multiple offer. In San Francisco a third of our transactions were involved in multiples. We are not seeing the wild over-bidding. These homes sold slightly over, at or slightly under list price. Those that are in multiples are priced exceedingly well as evidenced by an Oakmont listing in Santa Rosa that sold immediately while their neighbor’s home, who has had their house on the market for a good period of time, waits for an offer. I was told that our seller shared with our listing agents that they were chosen because they were honest with their suggested pricing. Sellers need to hear the truth.

I have attached an article by Jonathan Clements that appeared in the Wall Street Journal on November 7th. It clearly illustrates the importance of pricing if a seller wants to sell in this market. It delineates the costs of not selling in a reasonable amount of time. Many sellers become stuck in the value of their home at the peak of the market. Mr. Clements points out that prices across the country on average have only dropped 4.5% from their peak in July of 2006. He also states that the average time to sell a home is 10 months nationally. That means only 10% of the listings sell per month. Those that do sell are the ones that are value priced.

Here is how each county fared for the month of October. The numbers are based on sales of single family homes and condos. As I stated above sales prices for the majority of counties did well. I will give both the median and average sales price percentages. The first number will be median and the second average. San Mateo county lead with +14%/+18.7%, Marin +8.4%/+15%, Santa Clara +7%/+11% and San Francisco +5.4%/+11%. All these counties have the highest prices in the Bay Area. This shows the strength of the upper end markets. There is a great deal of wealth in the Bay Area due to the tech industry, venture capital and export/import businesses. Alameda county (+8%/+4%) although down on median was up on average again reflecting part of the influence from the expense markets in No. Alameda county. Three counties were down Napa slightly at -2%/-.5%, Sonoma
-8.6%/-10.6%, Contra Costa -10.6%/-2% and the hardest hit county Solano at -18.5%/-23%.

Number of closed sales was off significantly year over year for October; however seven of the nine counties were up month over month. The first number given is year over year for October and the second number is month over month Sept. to October. The leader in being least off from last year is San Francisco -11%/+21.5% followed by San Mateo -33%/-1%, Marin -34%/+21%, San Mateo -38%/+9%, Sonoma -40%/+2%, Napa -44%/+31%, Alameda -46%/+8%, Contra Costa -48%/-3% and Solano -56%/-13.5%.

Months supply of inventory (MSI) gives us a picture of the type of market each of our counties are in---seller’s, balanced or buyer’s market. Three months and under is a seller’s market, 4-6 months a balanced market, 6-10 months a buyer’s market and over 10 months a strong buyer’s market. MSI is higher in every county this year compared to last year. I will note that San Francisco and Marin counties were only slightly higher than last year’s supplies. All counties were down in MSI Sept. compared to October which is a positive sign. The only county still considered in a seller’s market is San Francisco at with a 3 MSI. Only San Mateo county at 5.2 MSI is in a balanced market. Santa Clara 7.5 and Alameda 8.7 MSI are in a buyer’s market. Sonoma 10.2, Napa 13.4 and Solano 15.1 MSI find themselves in a strong buyer’s market. As a reminder these are county-wide figures. Within each of these markets there can be diversity. Meaning that in a seller’s market county you may have specific markets that have higher inventories and conversely within a buyer’s market you may find specific markets that have smaller inventories.

Like other financial markets there will continue to be volatility. We have a broad variety of markets. One trend is clear, that our first time buyers markets are most challenged and that our upper end markets appear to have strong resilience. This market offers great opportunity for buyers in those markets with large inventories. There is still plenty of mortgage money out there; however qualifying for loans will be stricter. Actually we will be going back to a more normal qualifying criterion.

It will be a wild ride. The future is difficult to predict, but we have been through real estate cycles before and somehow came through them just fine as we will with this one.

The Goldman Report- Weekly Bay Area Real Estate Market Report

2007-10-23T08:39:00.001-07:00

The newspapers called it “Gray Friday” as the stock market dropped 360 points this past Friday on the 20th anniversary of “Black Friday” when the stock market dropped 23% in one day. I think I would have called Friday’s drop “Silver Friday” (like silver lining). Those 360 points represented only a 2.6% decrease. I would have expected a larger drop given the downgraded earnings reports for the 3rd quarter combined with the on-going sub-prime dilemma.

There was a time when the housing market and the stock market tracked in opposite directions. Actually economists had a word for it----“disintermediation”. When the stock market went up the housing market went down as investment dollars poured into stocks. And conversely when the stock market went down the housing market increased. All that changed about 25 years ago. In fact in the last great run up of the NASDAQ we tracked the rise of housing prices to the rise of the NADAQ and unbelievably the curve tracked perfectly with the two variables. It also tracked perfectly after the dot.com bomb in the opposite direction when prices declined. Obviously the wealth made with rising company values in the NASDAQ, particularly in the Bay Area, fueled the escalating prices during the run up in the late 90’s to 2000. The reason I mentioned this is that housing prices in the past moved quite slowly. Since this change of the markets running in similar patterns, the housing market has acted much like the stock market in being more vulnerable to wider swings and being influenced more by emotion and conjecture on the future of the economy.

As the stock market goes so does the housing market---instability in the stock market follows with instability in the housing market. And I should also
comment that housing from 2002-2005 played a significant role in driving the economy with the dramatic increase in new home building and in resale transactions. Certainly supply and demand plays its card and more recently easy qualifying sub-prime mortgages, but today more than ever the housing market is tied to the vagaries of the investment markets and visa versa.

Given the fragility of the stock market and the ever incessant drone of the media highlighting the demise of the housing market I am amazed our local market is doing as well as it is. During the reporting week our SF Presidio office had 31 sales and we saw a bit of resurgence in the wine country with sales doubling from previous weeks. However all parts of the Bay Area markets do not run together. The point is that in spite of all the negative news homes are still selling.

Part of the reason is that you can’t sleep in your stocks. First and foremost buying a home is part of the American Dream and a place to raise our families. Secondly it is one of the very few tax deductions left to most Americans. Thirdly, over the long term, it has proved to be an exceptional investment. The positive news in this course-correcting market is that interest rates are still historically low.

The demand is out there. Although open house traffic has slowed, the best of the properties are still attracting good numbers of buyers. Buyers today feel there is no sense of urgency. The caution is created by uncertainty in economic conditions and the prospect of housing prices continuing to drop. This condition has impacted the lower and middle price ranges of markets. The upper end seems to be doing just fine as indicated by two $12 million sales in SF and seven sales over $ 3 million. Let me add we had another sale in Ross over $ 6 million with multiple offers. What do the wealthy know that others do not? Obviously they feel confident in holding real estate.

Until the uncertainty in our economic future and the sub-prime fiasco unwinds itself the housing market continues to be sluggish in areas of first time buyer homes and those overloaded with inventory. There is some bright news. Unemployment is still at 4.7 nationally. In the Bay Area we are a bit under the national average at 4.4%. We still have job growth. Also on the bright side regarding the sub-prime situation Citigroup, JPMorgan and B of A are setting up a $75 billion fund to purchase mortgage securities and other distressed debt. This fund is designed to stave off any threat to financial world markets. The G7 nations met to strategize on limiting any further damage the credit crisis. All these efforts should have a positive effect over the long term to stabilize the credit markets.

The most important factor is the one I had talked about in several other reports and that is that recessions are created by consumers changing habits. The more the media focuses on negative events without balancing there stories will create a downward spiral among consumers that will impact their buying patterns. This is not just my theory, Robert Shiller of The New York Times wrote an article last week succinctly pointing out that the last recession was shaped by such a pattern. Right now he sees the economy as having the sniffles whether it turns into the flu will be based on whether or not the “salient, emotion-arousing narratives lead people to change in their spending habits.” He goes on to say, “the housing crisis and the credit crunch have people talking about ‘foreclosures and failures of financial institutions’. If that downbeat conversation continues the economy’s aches and pains may well turn into full-blown flu.” Words and thoughts are powerful. I don’t mind the media reporting on the facts, just make sure you balance it with all the facts.

So for my part I am going to focus on the positive elements of our economy and spread the word that there are great buys out there in the market (which there are). It is kind of like taking a flu shot to protect against the ill effects of the flu. If more of us do this, it will be a good antidote against the economy getting the flu.

The Goldman Report- Weekly Bay Area Real Estate Market Report

2007-10-08T11:32:00.001-07:00

Let me start with the good news---homes are still selling---they are just not selling at the pace they were 3 months ago. What a difference 90 days makes. Much has changed since the start of the sub-prime and liquidity crisis. It disrupted financial markets, made obtaining jumbo loans more difficult and most importantly changed the confidence factor among potential buyers.

As we review the month of September certain trends (based on residential single family and condo properties) become evident. With few exceptions median and average sales prices have not changed much from last year at this time. The big winners are Marin, San Francisco, San Mateo and Santa Clara counties with gains both in median and average sales prices compared to last September. They have been buoyed by the upper end of those markets being the most active of price ranges. Alameda, Contra Costa and Sonoma counties were off 1-4%. It was Solano that has been hit the hardest with prices down by 12%. Prices have held surprising well.

Absolute inventory numbers vary widely compared to last September. Marin (-13.5%), San Francisco (-5%), and Contra Costa (-6%) were all down from last year at this time. Probably the cause for San Francisco and Marin prices doing well. Sonoma county was flat. Alameda (+8%), San Mateo (+9%), Santa Clara (+12%) and Solano (+11%) were all up compared with last September.

The most significant trend is that pending and sold properties have declined sharply compared to last September. Pending sales by county were off anywhere from 19-43% and closed sales varied from 30-56% off from last September. This was a deep slide given that absolute inventories had not increased hugely and in some cases decreased from last year. Here are the numbers by county—first number is percentage off on pendings and the second is by closed sales: Alameda (-42%/-56%), Contra Costa (-45%/-51%), Marin (-34%/-41%), San Francisco (-19%/-30%), San Mateo -30%/-34%), Santa Clara (-40%/-46%), Solano (-43%/-61%) and Sonoma (-34%/-42%). As Sam Zell, the billionaire property developer and owner said, we don’t have a liquidity crisis we have a confidence crisis. The confidence crisis has had a meaningful effect on our markets. As noted above it usually takes large increases in inventory to prompt sales to fall drastically. This was not the case this time around.

With fewer sales, months supply of inventory has swelled. Most counties find themselves in a buyers’ to a strong buyers’ market environment. Only San Francisco at 4 months supply is still in a balanced market. Marin (6.9) and San Mateo (6.3) counties are on the edge of a balanced and buyers’ market. Alameda (10.7) and Santa Clara (9.1) are in a buyers’ market. Contra Costa (15.3), Solano (18.3) and Sonoma (12.3) find themselves in a strong buyers’ market. Cities within these counties can vary widely. There are number of examples of cities or areas within counties that could still be in a sellers’ market when the overall county finds itself in a balanced or buyers’ market. Or conversely a city or area could be in a strong buyers’ market when the county market is balanced. These numbers could change quickly if a number of sellers decide to take their homes off the market or fewer sellers decide to go on the market to replace listings that have been sold. These numbers have gone up quickly over the past 60 days. As we head toward the end of the year my guess is they will subside.

In spite of the current conditions nearly thirty percent of our sales the past week were involved in multiple transactions. The majority of the multiple offers received two offers. There were two notable transactions, one in the Central Sunset area of San Francisco that received six offers and went 7% over and another in Sonoma listed at $1.395 mil. and garnered 4 offers and went well over list. Again price is critical. In both of these cases the homes were priced exceptionally well. In the case of the Sonoma property, the seller between the time the property was listed and the broker’s open, reduced the price by $100,000. They would not have been in a multiple had they not changed their pricing strategy. Most properties selling in today’s environment are selling shortly after they come on the market or after significant price reductions. The others listings are just sitting.

Open house traffic has slowed. Attractive new listings are still seeing good numbers of buyers. A 3 bedr/1 ba. listing in the Cow Hollow area of San Francisco had a 100 groups through. It has been reported recently that many of the buyers visiting open homes are just beginning their search. This bodes well for the new year as many of these buyers will be prepared to buy.

Hopefully, with more good stories about the economy like the one at the end of last week reporting that employers actually added more jobs in August than previously reported; that there was positive job growth in September; and that unemployment is still at a low 4.7% will bring a greater degree of confidence that we are not slipping into a recession. It will take a while to unwind the damage of the sub-prime fiasco. The good news is that the economy is moving forward and a good deal of the bad weather has passed.

The Goldman Report- Weekly Bay Area Market Report

2007-09-30T18:01:00.000-07:00

I do hear a pulse. It may not be everywhere, but a couple of our markets are showing renewed vigor. The media continues to pound with negative stories. Economists everywhere are jumping on the bandwagon behind Mr. Greenspan’s comments of a few weeks ago. Despite the S.O.S. warnings regarding the housing market, buyers continue to make the leap of faith. This is particularly true in the upper end of our marketplaces. In San Francisco, Marin and the Piedmont/Montclair/Berkeley markets have had some strong sales in the upper end of their price ranges. A Piedmont listing priced at $5.85 mil. received two pre-emptive offers (before the listing actually hit the MLS). In Marin a home in Ross listed at $6.5 mil. received multiple offers after a significant price reduction. What do the wealthy know that the rest of the buyer population doesn’t.

The most active marketplaces continue to be San Francisco and the Piedmont/Montclair/Berkeley marketplaces. Nearly half of the 17 sales in our Montclair office were involved in multiple offers. Twenty-five percent of the transactions in our San Francisco offices were multiples. Again the trend of fewer offers and lesser amounts over asking and in some cases multiple offers going at or under list price continues. There are exceptions like the SF Miraloma Park 3 bedr. 2 ba. that received nine offers and went over asking by 15%, but they are few and far between.

One pronounced trend is that if homes are on the market more than 30 days without an offer or a price reduction they have little or no chance of selling. This is evidenced by numbers out of our Montclair office. Seventy-eight percent of the sales for September were on the market for less than 30 days. Seventy-five percent of those that sold after 30 days had price reductions. Buyers have a hyper-sensitivity to value. For sellers who are unwilling or unable to meet current market pricing should consider taking their homes off the market and return when their pricing needs more realistically match what buyers are willing to pay.

The wine country has slowed once again. Only the most desirable properties are attracting attention. Once such property was a 4 bd./3.5 ba. Glen Ellen listing priced at $1.395 mil on a little over an acre with pool and barn which garnered two offers and sold over asking. What we are seeing are more short sales, exchanges and seller carry back financing. This is reminiscent of past course-correcting markets. In Contra Costa the action in Lamorinda seems to be in the entry level. A fixer in Orinda priced at $749K received four offers and sold over asking. Another Orinda home listed at 949K sold in less than a week with 2 offers at asking price.

The buyers are out in force at the most popular listings. An incredible 305 people came through a 2 unit building priced at $1.349 mil. in the Cole Valley area of SF. And a 100 groups came through a 3 unit building in Pacific Hts. listed at $2.595mil. A Tiburon listing priced a little over $2 mil. had 45 visitors. Traffic at new listings is the most active.

Financing is having an effect on buyers under $2 mil. Lenders are qualifying buyers more stringently. It is more challenging for buyers to stretch their buying ability. This situation should be short lived. When the financial markets experience volatility due to the lax in qualifying, as recently illustrated by the sub-prime debacle, the pendulum swings to the conservative and then modulates as it swings back to the middle.