These are truly historic times. Last week, Barack Obama was elected as America’s first African-American president. I don’t envy his new job. He faces as great a challenge as FDR did in the 30’s. All of America, no matter whether you voted for him or not, is now dependent on what he does as he assumes the presidency on January 20th. I know all of us wish him well as he leads us out of our current economic crisis.
It is too early to tell what it will mean for the housing market. However, the declines on Wall Street and the focus on the election have slowed most segments of the local housing market over the last couple of weeks. Financial uncertainty, the fear created by a protracted recession and declining home values, has made buyers reluctant to move forward.
Believe it or not, there are bright spots. Although housing prices have declined, so too have inventories. In addition, the number of units closed over the last several months has increased over last year during the same period. These gains, however, have been in the lower price ranges. With the decline in median price first hitting in these same ranges beginning at the end of 2006, we are now seeing declines in areas that have been immune previously i.e. San Francisco.
The numbers from the month of October clearly demonstrate these trends. Where we have seen the most significant price declines year over year (the lower price ranges), we have also seen both the largest reduction in inventories and the greatest gains in homes sold year over year. Where there were few, if any, multiple offers in the lower price ranges last year, they currently represent the majority of multiple offers.
Both Contra Costa (-44%) and Solano (-37%) counties, which have some of lowest median prices, saw the greatest declines in price. They also had the largest increase in unit sales over last October---Solano (+242%) and Contra Costa (+185%). On the other end, the counties with the highest median sales prices have had the smallest declines in price---San Francisco (-10%), Marin (-25%) and San Mateo (-25%), but also had either a decline in units sold or much smaller increases in units sold over last October---San Francisco (-20%), Marin (+12%) and San Mateo (+17%). The rest of the counties were as follows (the first number is decline in price and the second is increase in units sold): Alameda (-35/+75%), Santa Clara (-33%/+35%), Napa (-32%/+58%) and Sonoma (-32%/+122%).
All but one county (San Francisco) declined in months supply of inventory over last year. The greatest percentage declines in supply occurred in those counties with the biggest declines in median price. The most dramatic decline was in Solano County, which has the lowest median price in the Bay Area. It went from a 22.4 months supply last year to a 5.4 months supply this year. The rest of the counties are as follows (the first number is October 2008 months supply of inventory and the second is October 2007): Sonoma (4.4/12.7), Contra Costa (4.7/15.1), Alameda (4.9/10.1), San Francisco (5.2/3.5), San Mateo (5.3/6.0), Solano (5.4/22.4), Marin (6.0/6.7), Santa Clara (6.4/9.0) and Napa (8.5/15.7).
The number of days on market has declined in counties with the lowest median prices, while they increased in the counties with the higher priced homes. The changes in percent in the number of days on the market are as follows: Napa (-27%), Solano (-20%), Sonoma (-20%), Contra Costa (-16%), Alameda (+15%), Marin (+17%), Santa Clara (+29%), San Mateo (+32%) and San Francisco (+44%).
The higher price counties remained healthy through most of last year while the lower priced counties took the brunt of the sub-prime fiasco. This year the higher price counties have not been immune. The worsening economy has now affected all income levels. What the lower end market experienced in the end of 2006 and all of 2007, the higher priced markets are experiencing now. We are beginning to see prices stabilize in some of our lower end markets. The recovery always starts at the bottom. The pace of the recovery will depend on many factors---most notably is how protracted a recession we will face. To be sure, the man who we elected President last Tuesday will have a profound effect on the housing market.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Saturday, October 11, 2008
Just Listed- Edward II Inn and Suites-Hotel for Sale
Property Description:Own a historic corner of San Francisco, in the tourist heavy Marina District. The 3 story boutique hotel was originally constructed in 1914 to accommodate visitors to the Panama Pacific International Exposition of 1915. Licenced for 32 tourist units, the inn currently operates 29 rooms in the main building (fee simple), all with beautiful Edwardian detail; and 2 large suites on the northeast corner of Lombard (leasehold interest), which allows for prime signage on both northwest and southeast sides of the street. Ground floor has a charming corner lobby with high ceilings, licenced Bloomers Pub with bath , guest breakfast area, kitchen, 2 offices, 3 suites with jacuzzi baths. Second and third floor have 26 additional rooms, double glazed windows, stained glass. Five off-sight leased parking spaces may be delivered.This hotel has been operated as a bed and breakfast. It enjoys a prime corner location and 50' frontage on Lombard Street and a depth (on Scott Street) of 68.75 feet. Walk to restaurants and shops on Lombard and Chestnut streets. One of the closest hotels to the Golden Gate Bridge. Property history shows strong occupancy and great future room revenue potential.
Location Description:The subject site is located on the southwest corner of the intersection of Lombard and Scott Streets in the City of County of San Francisco, California. Its dual civic address is known as 3151-55 Scott Street and 2401-05 Lombard Street. The subject is identified as San Francisco County Assessor' s Parcel Number 937-001.The subject property is located in a neighborhood identified as the Marina District. The neighborhood may be more specifically identified as that area east of the Presidio, bordered to the north by the San Francisco Bay, to the west by Van Ness Avenue, and to the south by Union Street. The neighborhood can be generally characterized as one of the better quality residential areas in the city of San Francisco. Transportation through the neighborhood is considered good. Two main arteries run east/west through the neighborhood including Lombard Street and Marina Boulevard. Both these streets intersect with U.S. Highway 101 to the west, which provides access to the Golden Gate Bridge and north.
Location Description:The subject site is located on the southwest corner of the intersection of Lombard and Scott Streets in the City of County of San Francisco, California. Its dual civic address is known as 3151-55 Scott Street and 2401-05 Lombard Street. The subject is identified as San Francisco County Assessor' s Parcel Number 937-001.The subject property is located in a neighborhood identified as the Marina District. The neighborhood may be more specifically identified as that area east of the Presidio, bordered to the north by the San Francisco Bay, to the west by Van Ness Avenue, and to the south by Union Street. The neighborhood can be generally characterized as one of the better quality residential areas in the city of San Francisco. Transportation through the neighborhood is considered good. Two main arteries run east/west through the neighborhood including Lombard Street and Marina Boulevard. Both these streets intersect with U.S. Highway 101 to the west, which provides access to the Golden Gate Bridge and north.
Asking Price: $6,000,000.
For more information please call: Oron Maher (415) 378-5464
October 22 Meeting will feature Bill Whalen of Wachovia
Meeting Location: Fort Mason, Room C230
Time: 6:30 - 8:30pm
Please join us for our next real estate meetup. While we are still in the process of confirming a second speaker- we are very pleased to have Bill Whalen address our group on October 22nd. Mr. Whalen, who is a Managing Director at Wachovia, will give us an inside analysis on real estate capital markets and an economic forecast for the coming year. Come learn from the industries best, and network with other like-minded real estate minds.
Mr. Whalen is a Managing Director and Regional Executive in the San Francisco office of Wachovia's Real Estate Division. Mr. Whalen manages Wachovia's real estate platform for the Northwest Region. Mr. Whalen is responsible for managing a team of real estate bankers who provide a full suite of capital solutions to institutional and middle market real estate investors. Mr. Whalen has closed over 6.0 billion in commercial real estate transactions since opening the San Francisco office for Wachovia Securities (First Union) in 1998.
Mr. Whalen has twenty years of corporate banking and commercial real estate finance experience and has worked in Wachovia's Real Estate platform for the past ten years. Prior to joining Wachovia, Mr. Whalen was a Vice President and Senior Underwriter at Wells Fargo Real Estate Capital Markets in San Francisco. At Wells Fargo he was responsible for underwriting and structuring commercial real estate mortgages intended for securitization. Prior to Wells Fargo, Mr. Whalen was Vice President at First Interstate Bank of California where he served in various capacities in its Real Estate Division. Mr. Whalen graduated with a B.A. in Economics and Political Science from the University of New Mexico.
For more information please call: Oron Maher (415) 378-5464.
Time: 6:30 - 8:30pm
Please join us for our next real estate meetup. While we are still in the process of confirming a second speaker- we are very pleased to have Bill Whalen address our group on October 22nd. Mr. Whalen, who is a Managing Director at Wachovia, will give us an inside analysis on real estate capital markets and an economic forecast for the coming year. Come learn from the industries best, and network with other like-minded real estate minds.
Mr. Whalen is a Managing Director and Regional Executive in the San Francisco office of Wachovia's Real Estate Division. Mr. Whalen manages Wachovia's real estate platform for the Northwest Region. Mr. Whalen is responsible for managing a team of real estate bankers who provide a full suite of capital solutions to institutional and middle market real estate investors. Mr. Whalen has closed over 6.0 billion in commercial real estate transactions since opening the San Francisco office for Wachovia Securities (First Union) in 1998.
Mr. Whalen has twenty years of corporate banking and commercial real estate finance experience and has worked in Wachovia's Real Estate platform for the past ten years. Prior to joining Wachovia, Mr. Whalen was a Vice President and Senior Underwriter at Wells Fargo Real Estate Capital Markets in San Francisco. At Wells Fargo he was responsible for underwriting and structuring commercial real estate mortgages intended for securitization. Prior to Wells Fargo, Mr. Whalen was Vice President at First Interstate Bank of California where he served in various capacities in its Real Estate Division. Mr. Whalen graduated with a B.A. in Economics and Political Science from the University of New Mexico.
For more information please call: Oron Maher (415) 378-5464.
Sunday, October 5, 2008
Oron Maher Represents Unique Marina District Bed & Breakfast Inn
San Francisco, CA – October 7, 2008 – Romantics, celebrities, historians and San Francisco visitors alike love the European-style Edward II Inn and Suites. For nearly 100 years, this one-of-a-kind Marina District bed and breakfast inn and pub has successfully paired old world charm with 21st century amenities, earning the title as one of the three Best Romantic Hotels in San Francisco by City Search. The ideally located property at 3155 Scott Street (@ Lombard) is now on the market, represented by listing agent Oron Maher of Pacific Union GMAC Real Estate. Price is available upon request.
“This inn is a tremendous and hard to obtain piece of San Francisco history as well as a successful bed and breakfast and English pub which are offered for sale at a time when San Francisco tourism and occupancy rates are at an all time high,” said Maher, who works from Pacific Union’s Presidio headquarters. “It also contains star appeal. The movie Beaches with Bette Midler was partially filmed in the hotel.”
On a historic note, the exquisite three-story inn was originally constructed in 1914 to accommodate visitors of the Panama Pacific International Exposition in 1915 which was held at what is now the Marina Green. With 11,754 square feet, the Edward II Inn and Suites features 31 rooms, four suites, Bloomers Pub and charm galore. Ideally situated at the corner of Scott and Lombard streets, the Edward II is all about location. It is just minutes from many popular Marina District shops and restaurants, the Presidio and Fort Mason, and attractions like Fisherman’s Wharf and Ghirardelli Square.
“This inn is a tremendous and hard to obtain piece of San Francisco history as well as a successful bed and breakfast and English pub which are offered for sale at a time when San Francisco tourism and occupancy rates are at an all time high,” said Maher, who works from Pacific Union’s Presidio headquarters. “It also contains star appeal. The movie Beaches with Bette Midler was partially filmed in the hotel.”
On a historic note, the exquisite three-story inn was originally constructed in 1914 to accommodate visitors of the Panama Pacific International Exposition in 1915 which was held at what is now the Marina Green. With 11,754 square feet, the Edward II Inn and Suites features 31 rooms, four suites, Bloomers Pub and charm galore. Ideally situated at the corner of Scott and Lombard streets, the Edward II is all about location. It is just minutes from many popular Marina District shops and restaurants, the Presidio and Fort Mason, and attractions like Fisherman’s Wharf and Ghirardelli Square.
Edward II Inn and Suites voted among top three Most Romantic Hotels in San Francisco
For more information about the hotel, or to request a showing, contact Oron Maher at 415.378-5464, realtylaw@gmail.com.
For more information about the hotel, or to request a showing, contact Oron Maher at 415.378-5464, realtylaw@gmail.com.
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Pacific Sales Comes to San Francisco
Pacific Sales Comes to San Francisco
Kitchen and Bath Retailer Expands into Northern CA
Southern California-based Pacific Sales Kitchen, Bath & Electronics signed a 10-year lease for the entire building at 955-975 Bryant St. in San Francisco. The tenant will take the former Copenhagen Furniture space in January next year. The 30,000-square foot retail building was built in 1928 in the Showplace Square submarket. It received renovations in 2000. The lease is part of Pacific Sales' expansion into Northern California.
Kitchen and Bath Retailer Expands into Northern CA
Southern California-based Pacific Sales Kitchen, Bath & Electronics signed a 10-year lease for the entire building at 955-975 Bryant St. in San Francisco. The tenant will take the former Copenhagen Furniture space in January next year. The 30,000-square foot retail building was built in 1928 in the Showplace Square submarket. It received renovations in 2000. The lease is part of Pacific Sales' expansion into Northern California.
Monday, September 15, 2008
San Francisco Real Estate Meetup
Please join us for our next meetup group on Wednesday, September 24, 2008 at 6:30 pm at Pacific Unions office. To RSVP for this event, please call Oron Maher (415) 378-5464 or email: realtylaw@gmail.com. Our speaker is Jeremey Paul. Here is a little more information about Jeremy:
Jeremy Paul and his associates at Quickdraw Permit Consulting have been getting improbable projects approved in San Francisco for more than 19 years. The office specializes in difficult smaller projects; including change of use and occupancy, residential demolitions and alterations, legalization of odd units and strange uses in unlikely locations, unit mergers, entertainment permitting, new construction, and staring down unreasonable and capricious plan checkers. Quickdraw is noted for a uniquely creative and persistent approach to neighborhood conflict resolution and permitting of new and environmentally sensitive architecture. They are responsible for the first horizontal axis windpower generator installed in a residential neighborhood in any city in the country.Mr. Paul is a nearly weekly feature at the San Francisco Board of Appeals and Planning Commission where he is noted for well crafted powerpoint presentations laden with enough humor to awaken sleeping commissioners. San Franciscan's with far too much time on their hands often approach him in restaurants to ask if he's that guy they see all the time on the City Hall cable TV channel. Jeremy uniformly denies knowing what they're talking about . . . Mr. Paul will speak on the current atmosphere towards Real Estate development and alteration in San Francisco and hopes you will come with questions both specific and general about our Building and Planning codes.
Jeremy Paul and his associates at Quickdraw Permit Consulting have been getting improbable projects approved in San Francisco for more than 19 years. The office specializes in difficult smaller projects; including change of use and occupancy, residential demolitions and alterations, legalization of odd units and strange uses in unlikely locations, unit mergers, entertainment permitting, new construction, and staring down unreasonable and capricious plan checkers. Quickdraw is noted for a uniquely creative and persistent approach to neighborhood conflict resolution and permitting of new and environmentally sensitive architecture. They are responsible for the first horizontal axis windpower generator installed in a residential neighborhood in any city in the country.Mr. Paul is a nearly weekly feature at the San Francisco Board of Appeals and Planning Commission where he is noted for well crafted powerpoint presentations laden with enough humor to awaken sleeping commissioners. San Franciscan's with far too much time on their hands often approach him in restaurants to ask if he's that guy they see all the time on the City Hall cable TV channel. Jeremy uniformly denies knowing what they're talking about . . . Mr. Paul will speak on the current atmosphere towards Real Estate development and alteration in San Francisco and hopes you will come with questions both specific and general about our Building and Planning codes.
Monday, May 12, 2008
The Goldman Report- Weekly Bay Area Marketing Report
The Bay Area forecast is loaded with microclimates. Meaning that as usual San Francisco is still bright and sunny, Marin, Alameda, and Contra Costa are cloudy with breaking sunshine, while Sonoma and Napa are still rather cloudy. Even within each county we find areas that continue with rain storms mixed with bright sun. You can even find a rainbow or two.
The overriding theme is plenty of buyers circling, with many still trying to figure out the long term weather pattern. The majority of homes open for the first time are attracting ample crowds of between 10-40 potential home owners. The best and most attractive listings are drawing numbers in the high double to triple digits, like the Piedmont 3 bedr./3 ba. home that was visited by 140 guests and the SF Noe Valley listing priced at $2.095 mil. that garnered over 200 buyers. Buyer traffic drops off significantly after the first open home as buyers are constantly looking for the newest eye-catching listing. Usually the only exception is when a property has a noteworthy price reduction.
Those that are jumping in are doing so with gusto. Nearly 30% of our transactions during this period were involved in multiple offers (29% to be exact). The majority of these transactions are drawing between 2-4 offers and selling at asking or 2-6% over list. There are exceptions such as the Noe Valley listing in SF priced at a bit under $ 1 mil that did go over by 10%. The upper end of the market is still healthy in San Francisco and appears to be coming back in Marin. As evidenced by the multiple offer on a $4 mil. home in Tiburon and another Marin listing at $3.9 mil. that also went into escrow. Contra Costa is also seeing resurgence in their upper end where a $2.075 mil. home in San Ramon sold. The Oakland/Berkeley area is seeing a different pattern where listings between $1 – 1.5 mil are selling, but those over that level are being more challenged. Napa and Sonoma are experiencing the bulk of their activity in the lowest and highest ends of their market. As you can see, the weather is quite variable.
The majority of buyers are still lacking a sense of urgency. However, buyers do know value and when they see it; do not hesitate to make their move. Volume of sales was well off last year comparing first quarter 2007 to first quarter 2008. The pattern changed in April, where in a number of counties open sales were actually up over 2008. This is a positive trend if it holds for May and June.
We will continue to see volatility in our market, just as we have seen in the stock market. Inventories continue to shrink and new home building has pretty much come to a standstill in the Bay Area. At the same time buyer demand is increasing. At some point the pressure will have to release itself. Although this time it should come in a measured release rather than with hurricane force as it did in 1999/2000 and again in 2004/2005.
I am attaching two articles that acknowledge that the worst is behind us and that the repair has begun. One is by a hedge fund manager, Cyril Moulle-Berteaux and the other by George Soros the billionaire investor. These articles are significant because they are the first national articles that are beginning to look at recovery rather than continuing to dwell on the rubble in the rear view mirror. We will still experience the on-going fall out from the sub-prime debacle, but like after shocks from an earthquake they do diminish over time.
The overriding theme is plenty of buyers circling, with many still trying to figure out the long term weather pattern. The majority of homes open for the first time are attracting ample crowds of between 10-40 potential home owners. The best and most attractive listings are drawing numbers in the high double to triple digits, like the Piedmont 3 bedr./3 ba. home that was visited by 140 guests and the SF Noe Valley listing priced at $2.095 mil. that garnered over 200 buyers. Buyer traffic drops off significantly after the first open home as buyers are constantly looking for the newest eye-catching listing. Usually the only exception is when a property has a noteworthy price reduction.
Those that are jumping in are doing so with gusto. Nearly 30% of our transactions during this period were involved in multiple offers (29% to be exact). The majority of these transactions are drawing between 2-4 offers and selling at asking or 2-6% over list. There are exceptions such as the Noe Valley listing in SF priced at a bit under $ 1 mil that did go over by 10%. The upper end of the market is still healthy in San Francisco and appears to be coming back in Marin. As evidenced by the multiple offer on a $4 mil. home in Tiburon and another Marin listing at $3.9 mil. that also went into escrow. Contra Costa is also seeing resurgence in their upper end where a $2.075 mil. home in San Ramon sold. The Oakland/Berkeley area is seeing a different pattern where listings between $1 – 1.5 mil are selling, but those over that level are being more challenged. Napa and Sonoma are experiencing the bulk of their activity in the lowest and highest ends of their market. As you can see, the weather is quite variable.
The majority of buyers are still lacking a sense of urgency. However, buyers do know value and when they see it; do not hesitate to make their move. Volume of sales was well off last year comparing first quarter 2007 to first quarter 2008. The pattern changed in April, where in a number of counties open sales were actually up over 2008. This is a positive trend if it holds for May and June.
We will continue to see volatility in our market, just as we have seen in the stock market. Inventories continue to shrink and new home building has pretty much come to a standstill in the Bay Area. At the same time buyer demand is increasing. At some point the pressure will have to release itself. Although this time it should come in a measured release rather than with hurricane force as it did in 1999/2000 and again in 2004/2005.
I am attaching two articles that acknowledge that the worst is behind us and that the repair has begun. One is by a hedge fund manager, Cyril Moulle-Berteaux and the other by George Soros the billionaire investor. These articles are significant because they are the first national articles that are beginning to look at recovery rather than continuing to dwell on the rubble in the rear view mirror. We will still experience the on-going fall out from the sub-prime debacle, but like after shocks from an earthquake they do diminish over time.
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