Sunday, September 30, 2007

The Goldman Report- Weekly Bay Area Market Report


I do hear a pulse. It may not be everywhere, but a couple of our markets are showing renewed vigor. The media continues to pound with negative stories. Economists everywhere are jumping on the bandwagon behind Mr. Greenspan’s comments of a few weeks ago. Despite the S.O.S. warnings regarding the housing market, buyers continue to make the leap of faith. This is particularly true in the upper end of our marketplaces. In San Francisco, Marin and the Piedmont/Montclair/Berkeley markets have had some strong sales in the upper end of their price ranges. A Piedmont listing priced at $5.85 mil. received two pre-emptive offers (before the listing actually hit the MLS). In Marin a home in Ross listed at $6.5 mil. received multiple offers after a significant price reduction. What do the wealthy know that the rest of the buyer population doesn’t.

The most active marketplaces continue to be San Francisco and the Piedmont/Montclair/Berkeley marketplaces. Nearly half of the 17 sales in our Montclair office were involved in multiple offers. Twenty-five percent of the transactions in our San Francisco offices were multiples. Again the trend of fewer offers and lesser amounts over asking and in some cases multiple offers going at or under list price continues. There are exceptions like the SF Miraloma Park 3 bedr. 2 ba. that received nine offers and went over asking by 15%, but they are few and far between.

One pronounced trend is that if homes are on the market more than 30 days without an offer or a price reduction they have little or no chance of selling. This is evidenced by numbers out of our Montclair office. Seventy-eight percent of the sales for September were on the market for less than 30 days. Seventy-five percent of those that sold after 30 days had price reductions. Buyers have a hyper-sensitivity to value. For sellers who are unwilling or unable to meet current market pricing should consider taking their homes off the market and return when their pricing needs more realistically match what buyers are willing to pay.

The wine country has slowed once again. Only the most desirable properties are attracting attention. Once such property was a 4 bd./3.5 ba. Glen Ellen listing priced at $1.395 mil on a little over an acre with pool and barn which garnered two offers and sold over asking. What we are seeing are more short sales, exchanges and seller carry back financing. This is reminiscent of past course-correcting markets. In Contra Costa the action in Lamorinda seems to be in the entry level. A fixer in Orinda priced at $749K received four offers and sold over asking. Another Orinda home listed at 949K sold in less than a week with 2 offers at asking price.

The buyers are out in force at the most popular listings. An incredible 305 people came through a 2 unit building priced at $1.349 mil. in the Cole Valley area of SF. And a 100 groups came through a 3 unit building in Pacific Hts. listed at $2.595mil. A Tiburon listing priced a little over $2 mil. had 45 visitors. Traffic at new listings is the most active.

Financing is having an effect on buyers under $2 mil. Lenders are qualifying buyers more stringently. It is more challenging for buyers to stretch their buying ability. This situation should be short lived. When the financial markets experience volatility due to the lax in qualifying, as recently illustrated by the sub-prime debacle, the pendulum swings to the conservative and then modulates as it swings back to the middle.

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