Sunday, September 30, 2007

The Goldman Report- Weekly Bay Area Market Report


I do hear a pulse. It may not be everywhere, but a couple of our markets are showing renewed vigor. The media continues to pound with negative stories. Economists everywhere are jumping on the bandwagon behind Mr. Greenspan’s comments of a few weeks ago. Despite the S.O.S. warnings regarding the housing market, buyers continue to make the leap of faith. This is particularly true in the upper end of our marketplaces. In San Francisco, Marin and the Piedmont/Montclair/Berkeley markets have had some strong sales in the upper end of their price ranges. A Piedmont listing priced at $5.85 mil. received two pre-emptive offers (before the listing actually hit the MLS). In Marin a home in Ross listed at $6.5 mil. received multiple offers after a significant price reduction. What do the wealthy know that the rest of the buyer population doesn’t.

The most active marketplaces continue to be San Francisco and the Piedmont/Montclair/Berkeley marketplaces. Nearly half of the 17 sales in our Montclair office were involved in multiple offers. Twenty-five percent of the transactions in our San Francisco offices were multiples. Again the trend of fewer offers and lesser amounts over asking and in some cases multiple offers going at or under list price continues. There are exceptions like the SF Miraloma Park 3 bedr. 2 ba. that received nine offers and went over asking by 15%, but they are few and far between.

One pronounced trend is that if homes are on the market more than 30 days without an offer or a price reduction they have little or no chance of selling. This is evidenced by numbers out of our Montclair office. Seventy-eight percent of the sales for September were on the market for less than 30 days. Seventy-five percent of those that sold after 30 days had price reductions. Buyers have a hyper-sensitivity to value. For sellers who are unwilling or unable to meet current market pricing should consider taking their homes off the market and return when their pricing needs more realistically match what buyers are willing to pay.

The wine country has slowed once again. Only the most desirable properties are attracting attention. Once such property was a 4 bd./3.5 ba. Glen Ellen listing priced at $1.395 mil on a little over an acre with pool and barn which garnered two offers and sold over asking. What we are seeing are more short sales, exchanges and seller carry back financing. This is reminiscent of past course-correcting markets. In Contra Costa the action in Lamorinda seems to be in the entry level. A fixer in Orinda priced at $749K received four offers and sold over asking. Another Orinda home listed at 949K sold in less than a week with 2 offers at asking price.

The buyers are out in force at the most popular listings. An incredible 305 people came through a 2 unit building priced at $1.349 mil. in the Cole Valley area of SF. And a 100 groups came through a 3 unit building in Pacific Hts. listed at $2.595mil. A Tiburon listing priced a little over $2 mil. had 45 visitors. Traffic at new listings is the most active.

Financing is having an effect on buyers under $2 mil. Lenders are qualifying buyers more stringently. It is more challenging for buyers to stretch their buying ability. This situation should be short lived. When the financial markets experience volatility due to the lax in qualifying, as recently illustrated by the sub-prime debacle, the pendulum swings to the conservative and then modulates as it swings back to the middle.

Saturday, September 29, 2007

Just Listed in Eureka Valley.


A charming condominium in the heart of Eureka Valley. Located in a wonderful neighborhood, close to many shops and restaurants. Period detail with modern upgrades, this three bedroom condominium is a classic San Franciscan residence. Excellent hardwood floors and partial carpet throughout. A very functional layout with formal living room, dining room, butler's pantry and kitchen. Shared garden with pond. Separate and private storage space below.
Listing Agent: Oron Maher (415) 345-3173

Monday, September 24, 2007

The Goldman Report- Weekly Bay Area Real Estate Market Report

They had a party on Wall Street when the Federal Reserve lowered the fed funds and the discount rate by a half percent. What did it do for the housing market? Answer ????? Although the stock market swings widely when the Fed makes major moves; the housing market does not react in the same way. The swings are more elongated. It takes months (or sometimes longer) to move directions. The mortgage markets always anticipate a move in rates and with the recent move by the Fed rates dropped a bit under 7% for jumbo loans. How much lower will they go is anybody’s guess. There is money available for jumbo loans not in the quantity it once was, but certainly enough for current demand. The only thing that has changed is that it is taking longer for approvals and lending criteria has tightened. So what---we have been in a very loose lending environment for 2-3 years. The pendulum has swung back to a normalcy. This is positive for the market as it will prevent against future overheating of prices.

Momentum has picked up since the end of August. Not a huge lift, but certainly moving in the right direction. The number of multiple offers has slowed; still 40% of our offices had at least one multiple offer transaction. The Lamorinda (Lafayette, Orinda and Moraga) area did see a doubling of sales this week compared to last. San Francisco also seems to be picking up speed.

Buyers are still looking for the right property and when the find it, they move quickly. In Larkspur a 1200sq. ft. home priced at $917,000 received 7 offers and went substantially over the list price. In San Francisco, a Central Richmond 3 bedr. 1 ½ ba. home listed at $1.295 received 2 offers and went slightly over asking and in Mission Dolores at two unit building priced at $1.525 mil. garnered 3 offers and went 8% over asking. A pre-emptive offer was accepted on a $2.5mil. Marin property before it hit broker’s tour. The upper end is doing just fine. A unique Piedmont listing priced at $7.8 mil. sold in the first week with 3 buyers circling and one quickly going into escrow.

Buyers are waiting for the newest hot properties. Most open home traffic was tepid. This is particularly true for listings that have been on the market before Labor Day. The best of the new listing inventory coming on after Labor Day experienced heavy traffic as exemplified by a new SF Marina listing that had a 100 groups or a new Mill Valley listing priced at $1.569 mil. being attended by a also 100 groups or the SF Glen Park listing seeing 125 visitors over a two day period.

The buyer demand has not subsided. However, their willingness to make offers has slowed appreciably except for the best priced and staged properties. It is like the tide is out and we are waiting for the tide to rise once again. It won’t be a tsunami. But until buyers feel confident in the economy, the housing market will be in a period of inertia. As with any market, the best time to buy is when others are not. Those buyers that dive in will be rewarded in the long term as sellers are more willing to negotiate and give favorable terms.

Most offices are showing an increase of activity during the second week of Sept. If this activity continues we could see a good solid fall market. The next two reports should give us a good sense on what kind of a note the year will end on.

Sunday, September 16, 2007

Multi-Family Residential (Apartment Buildings) Property Stats for San Francisco Third Quarter

As we begin approaching the last quarter of 2007, the apartment building market has began taking some interesting twists. The following data is compiled for sales of
6+ unit apartment buildings that have sold in San Francisco from January 1, 2007 unitl September of 2007.
This information has been obtained from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Services and from tax records. Neither Oron Maher nor Pacific Union take responsibility for the accuracy of this information.

Sales Price:

The range of sales prices is between $995,000-$19,000,000. The average sales price is $3,600,228. Total sales price is $446,428,277. The total number of sales is 124.

Units:

The range of number of units sold is between 6 and 114. The average number of units/building is 15.81. The total number of units sold is 1,961.

Price/Unit:

The range of price/unit is between $87,710 and $3,125,000. The average price/unit is $281,184.

Gross Income:

The range of gross income for buildings sold is between $55,464 and $1,333,369. The average gross income is $228,397. The total gross income for all buildings sold is $28,321,278.

GRM:

The range of GRM (gross rental multiplier) is between 8.8 and 28.6. The average GRM is 16.4.

Square Footage:

The range of square footage is between 1,900 and 68,575 square feet. The average number of square feet per building is 11,695.64. The total number of square footage sold this year is 1,450,259.

Price/Square Foot:

The range of sales price per square foot is between $138/ft and $635/ft. The average price per foot is $317/ft.

Price/Room:

The range of price for bedroom sold is between $38,281 and $154,545 a bedroom. The average price for a bedroom is $82,617.

Net Income:

The range of net income earned from sold buildings is between $27,464 and $800,021. The average net income earned is $147,335. The total net income earned from all buildings combined is $18,269,592.

Cap Rate:

The range of cap rates for buildings sold is between 1.8 and 6.8. Average cap rate is 4.2.

If you have any questions about the muti-unit/ apartment building market in San Francisco or are thinking about purchasing or selling investment property in San Francisco, please call Oron Maher at (415) 345-3173.

-Oron Maher

The Goldman Report- Weekly Bay Area Market Report

If you read the SF Chronicle’s Business section Friday you would think Governor Schwartzenegger should declare a state of emergency and apply for FEMA funds for sellers---the headline read Home sales in Bay Area plunge to 15 year low----lines like “a credit crunch that is quashing home shoppers’ ability to buy”. I thought this is supposed to be news reporting not prose. With a bit of a fizzle Kelly Zito states the median price rose 4% but had to add it was down 1.7% from the peak. Just a little history, Kelly has been predicting a bubble since May 2003. Finally, now that the market has cooled due primarily to the sub-prime fiasco, she is having her day---well at least for the moment.

These kinds of stories create an uncertainty among consumers by focusing only on one side of the story instead of giving a balanced presentation. I am not saying newspapers don’t give another view. The do at times, but those stories end up on page 4 at the bottom of the page, like Kenneth Harney’s column in this Sunday’s real estate section. It gave a picture of the mortgage situation quite different than one that has been portrayed by regional newspapers over the last several months. It was entitled “National view of mortgage mess is not so disastrous”. The overall theme was that delinquencies and foreclosures are very localized and are not a national threat. He pointed out that 97.4% of outstanding mortgages are paying on-time and that in 34 states foreclosures actually decreased. Even in California sub-prime borrowers outperformed those nationwide.

Bottom line buyers have become more cautious and reticent to write offers. The outcome was the market has slowed which is reflected in the declining numbers. What it doesn’t mean is that the market has come to a standstill. Yes, fewer sales, but still good activity for well priced homes in desirable areas. Open home activity has begun to increase now that we are past Labor Day. This is particularly the case in San Francisco, Berkeley, Piedmont and in parts of Oakland. A Berkeley listing priced at $1.475mil had 100 groups through and requests for 4 disclosure packets. A Piedmont listing had over 150 groups through and requests for 6 disclosure packets. A Berkeley listing in the Claremont area priced at $1.150mil. saw 150 groups through and requests for 8 packets. A listing in the Sequoyah view area of Oakland listed at just under a million had 40 groups through and an offer being written. This is not our entire market, but it shows that in spite of the media harbingers there is still lively demand. Whether that demand exercises itself is a function of price, condition, and inventory.

A good example of how pricing plays a significant role in a sale was demonstrated by a Montclair home that went into escrow during our report period. The home originally came on the market in June priced at $1.997mil. It sat without an offer and was taken off the market at the end of July to do some touching up and would come back on the market after Labor Day. It was brought back on the market at $1.849mil. received 3 offers and sold over asking. Buyers have done their homework and will not pay a penny more. When they see value they leap like they did with a “fixer” Lafayette listing priced at $900k that garnered 5 offers and sold over asking.

Mortgage rates have begun to decline and are now at a 4 month low and lower than they were a year ago. All signs point to the Fed lowering rates at their next meeting. This is both good for potential borrowers and those they may need to refinance. If the stock market continues to settle itself down, the economy does not hit any speed bumps, rates continue to drop, and the newspapers have some other tragedy to report on other than the housing market---buyers will regain their confidence in the future and be more willing to move forward. The demand is there, financing is available, we just need the boat to stop rocking.

Saturday, September 8, 2007

Just Listed- 135 15th Ave- Lake District Edwardian Home $2,495,000

Remarkable Lake District residence located on much sought-after block. Formal living, dining and family room with large outdoor deck make for a very inviting floor plan. This home shows much pride of ownership and has been impressively upgraded. All four bedrooms, including master bath are located on the second level. Basement level has additional room and bath. Great backyard space with many flourishing greens. Close to Presidio trails, Mountain Lake Park and convenient to Golden Gate Bridge.

For more information please contact Listing Agent: Oron Maher 415-345-3173.

Just Listed 700 Fell St #7- Alamo Square Condo


Very Hip and Spacious corner unit condo located in historic Alamo Square. This 2 bed/2 bath unit has an abundance of natural light. Enjoy downtown and southern views from its many windows. Stylishly remodeled with new kitchen, bathrooms, hardwood floors and in-unit laundry. Only 8 units in this building with common roof deck and garage parking. Close to trendy Hayes Valley shopping, Alamo Square Park, NOPA restaurant and Divisadero shops.

For more information please call Oron Maher 415-345-3173